The hottest thing is not to misjudge the economic

Don't misjudge the economic situation because of the hot sales of excavators

don't misjudge the economic situation because of the hot sales of excavators

China Construction machinery information

recently, headline articles such as "the sales of excavators are against the sky", "the new cycle of excavators", "excavators are selling crazy again" have been brushed on the screen, and even the sales of excavators have been used as a barometer of infrastructure investment and even macroeconomic, We are very optimistic about the economic situation in the second half of the year

is it really so optimistic

the excavator sales volume in July was indeed brilliant, with 11123 units sold in a single month, with a year-on-year increase of 45.3%, which was not only much higher than last July, but also higher than all July in history. Originally, July and August are the off-season for excavator sales, but this year's off-season is not light, and even comparable to the peak season of general years

some media said, "behind the sharp increase in excavator sales in July is the recent high-level meeting to revisit infrastructure investment." I disagree. Because the Politburo proposed to "strengthen the efforts to make up for weaknesses in the field of infrastructure" on July 31, even after hearing the sound of the State Council executive meeting that "tensile energy absorption can be calculated and early results can be achieved in promoting infrastructure projects under construction" on July 23, if each vehicle is now calculated at 300kg modified material, it is only a week, and it is too late to spend money suddenly. Excavator sales are not like buying household appliances, It takes a period of time

obviously, it is not expectation that stimulated the huge increase in excavator sales

is it the growth rate of fixed asset investment

in the first seven months of this year, investment increased by 5.5% year-on-year, the growth rate being the lowest since 1992; However, excavator sales increased by 58.7% in the same period. Look at last year, the investment growth rate was only 4.2%, and the excavator sales rose by 97.4%, almost doubling! Of course, the investment downturn has not been a year or two. After the investment growth rate reached 30% in 2009 with excellent wear resistance, it entered the downward channel. The peak sales volume of excavators appeared in 2011, lagging behind for two years, and then fell all the way to the bottom in 2015. Since 2016, a new round of rising cycle has been started, but the investment growth rate remains low

it is later than the peak of investment growth, but earlier than the bottom of investment growth. Excavator sales fluctuate in the large economic cycle environment, but it is difficult to bear the responsibility of infrastructure investment and macroeconomic barometer

the reason for the sharp increase in excavator sales in the past two years is more from the upgrading of machines within the industry. The update demand in 2016 was 46840 units, and the excavator sales volume in that year was 73390 units, accounting for more than 60%. The update demand in 2017 was 61891 units. It is expected that the update demand in 2018 will rise to 81536 units, 102310 units in 2019 and 145532 units in 2020

the number of renewals has increased significantly year by year because of the continuous tightening of national environmental protection policies. Since April 2016, the country has formulated more stringent energy conservation and emission standards for construction machinery. The emission standards for diesel engines of non road mobile machinery have been implemented to the third stage. It is imperative to eliminate excavators that do not meet the requirements. At the same time, the peak of the previous cycle, That is to say, the excavators sold from 2009 to 2011 have successively entered the phase out period

the research report released by Zhiyan consulting predicts that most of the "national first/national second" excavators on the market are expected to be eliminated in 2018, so the construction machinery market will be benefited by strict environmental protection policies in the future. Assuming that the service life of excavators and loaders is 10 years, and 40% of the machines in the first three years are eliminated, that is, the machines that need to be upgraded, the remaining 60% of the machines continue to work normally, and all the machines in earlier years are eliminated. The proportion of replacement demand is expected to increase significantly in the future. It is preliminarily estimated that the proportion of excavator replacement demand is expected to reach 45% - 48% in 2018 and 50% in 2019

nearly half of the sales come from the upgrading of machinery and equipment, rather than investment, which is different from the sharp increase in excavator sales stimulated by the previous round of 4trillion