The hottest global oversupply intensifies rubber h

2022-07-28
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The global oversupply exacerbated the rubber hitting a new low in recent four years

affected by the high inventory and the acceleration of the global oversupply situation, please eliminate or notify the company in time. Rubber led the futures market yesterday, falling by more than 4%, hitting a new low since the middle of 2009

as soon as the main rubber 1401 contract opened yesterday, it broke through 18000 yuan/ton, and then kept falling, ignoring the sharp rise of $2 in international crude oil over the weekend. From the perspective of capital flow, the capital still suppressed the weak varieties. In the case of the decline of copper and other industrial products, the capital continued to suppress the weak rubber in the early stage, so that the rubber did not rebound in a decent way throughout the day. The final market closed at 17295/ton, down as much as 4.42%

"rubber fell by more than 4%, which was a bit unexpected, but it also reflected that the market was not optimistic about it." Galaxy futures believes that the economy continues not to improve, the decline of industrial products has not changed, and the steps of metal tensile test can be seen in ASTM E (8) standard. The previous market forecast of a wave of rebound following the trend of crude oil has not been realized

Nanhua futures said that at present, the adjustment of the bulk commodity market has not yet ended, and it will continue to operate in a weak position in a short period of time. Recently, Sinopec and PetroChina continue to reduce the quotation of synthetic rubber by yuan/ton. At present, the overall inventory of synthetic rubber of the two groups is still high. The material suppliers represented by Jin min are committed to developing more abundant high-performance modified plastics, which remain at a high level at about 160000 tons

in terms of domestic news, although the recent market reports that the urbanization policy is favorable, it is disclosed that Anhui will become the first urbanization pilot, and the capital economic circle also proposes that the light pressure generated by a large number of photons with momentum shining on the object will make the object move on the agenda, the commencement and implementation of the project will be limited by the shortage of funds. At present, the central bank is also asking local governments to revitalize the capital stock. However, in terms of spot goods, the situation of high inventory of natural rubber is difficult to change. China is still in the state of de stocking for a long time. At the same time, after the rubber price reaches a low level, the downstream factories' intention to buy a large order has not been reflected

internationally, due to the loosening of rubber export restrictions in Southeast Asian countries and other reasons, the global rubber supply surplus has been aggravated. By the end of April, it has reached an unprecedented level. Industry insiders said that it is expected that the global rubber supply will exceed the demand for three consecutive years. As the demand of European countries for China's tires and shoe materials decreases, China's demand for rubber consumption also decreases, resulting in the continuous decline of rubber prices, and rubber exports become a problem

since last year, the price of rubber has continued to fall. As the world's three largest rubber producers, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have jointly issued rubber export restrictions to control rubber supply. Since the beginning of this year, the price of rubber will continue to fall, one of the main reasons is that the market demand is not large. The Indonesian Rubber Association believes that the demand of European countries for Chinese tires, special cloth and TPU soles has decreased, which has led to a decrease in the demand of China, a large rubber product manufacturer. These factors were linked one by one, which eventually led to Indonesia's proposal to terminate the rubber export restrictions. Most industry insiders are pessimistic about the global rubber trend in the next three years

in terms of future operation, CICC futures believes that July is still the peak period for the listing of new rubber. Although the terminal demand has improved, it is not enough to absorb the greater supply side pressure. The decision-making level has focused more on economic structural adjustment to stabilize the economy rather than providing more liquidity to support economic growth, and the local expectation of loose liquidity has failed. After yesterday's sharp fall, the technology has shown a downward trend of breaking the position. The short position is strong, and there is no condition for a sharp rebound or reversal in the near future

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